Market Should Be 'Near Normal' in the Spring

Housing industry consultant John Burns says low mortgage
rates and the home buyer tax credit, plus the availability of FHA loans – “the new subprime,” as he calls it – will
combine to keep housing transaction levels at “near normal” through Spring 2010.

First-time homebuyers are about the half the market, he says, while the expansion of the housing tax credit will get
senior buyers “off the fence” and buying retirement properties.

What would have happened if Congress hadn’t extended the tax credit? “I think we would see housing crater,” Burns said.

Burns clients include home builders, lenders, and equity invrstors.

Source: the Wall Street Journal, Nick Timiraos (11/18/2009)

Foreclosures Decline for Third Month

Foreclosures were filed on 332,292 U.S. properties in October, a decrease of 3 percent from September, but still up nearly 19 percent from October 2008, according to foreclosure sales site RealtyTrac.

October marks the third-straight month of declines in foreclosures, which many see as an encouraging sign that the worst of the foreclosures are behind us. Still, some skeptics predict another wave. “The real issue is we don’t know what inventory banks are holding that they have yet to put on the market,” said Stephen Miller, chair of the economics department at the University of Nevada at Las Vegas, during an interview with Bloomberg News.

States with the highest foreclosure rates are Nevada, California, Florida, Arizona, Idaho, Illinois, Michigan, Georgia, Maryland and Utah.

Four states accounted for 52 percent of the nation’s total foreclosure activity in October: California, Florida, Illinois, and Michigan. The rest of the states in the top 10 for actual numbers of foreclosures were Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, Texas, Ohio, and New Jersey.

Source: RealtyTrac (11/12/2009)

Fewer Short Sales Come Up Short

While obstacles to short sales remain, real estate practitioners say the process is becoming more efficient. Rather than waiting six months or more to push through a deal, agents say banks are more willing to negotiate prices up front.

"My gut feeling is that short sales seem to be the preferred avenue for distressed property now," says Cindi Hagley of San Ramon, Calif.-based Windermere Welcome Home. "It's cheaper for [banks] to do a short sale than go all the way to foreclosure."

The short-sale process has become more manageable now that banks are willing to pre-approve prices, reach out to underwater borrowers who have listed their homes for sale, implement Web-based systems that manage the short sale process, and add staff dedicated to short sales.

Additionally, the U.S. Treasury is set to implement a streamlined short sales framework and offer incentive payments of $1,500 to home owners and $1,000 to both loan servicers and second-lien holders.

Borrowers also prefer short sales because Fannie Mae requires them to wait only two years to own another home or even less than that if they were not delinquent. By contrast, those who lost their homes to foreclosure have to wait five years.

Source: San Francisco Chronicle, Carolyn Said (10/21/09)

A Historic Time to Buy

Young people just starting to invest and buying their first homes are potentially the winners in this recession.
First-time homebuyers, most between the ages of 25 and 45, accounted for about 45 percent of home sales from January through July 2009, according to the National Association of REALTORS®
"This is a historic time," says George Jaramillo, a 35-year-old business analyst in Atlanta, who recently bought three homes, two of them foreclosures. "It's a great opportunity to make some great gains in the future."
A study by investment company T. Rowe Price points out that investing when prices are low can result in amazing gains. For instance, between 1970 and 1990, the annualized rate of return for the S&P 500 was 11.5 percent.
"We need to be shouting from the rooftops that this is not the time to get out of the market if you're young," says Christine Fahlund, a senior financial planner with T. Rowe Price. "This is the time to be in the market."
Source: The Associated Press, Chip Cutter (10/05/2009)

Manhattan Prices Fall Year-Over-Year

It is unclear what direction Manhattan real estate prices have moved in during the past three months, but there is no argument that they have fallen significantly in the last year.

Miller Samuel says prices have declined 8.4 percent year-over-year. Halstead Properties and Brown Harris Stevens reported a 14 percent decline. Corcoran Group reported an 18 percent decrease.

"The interesting thing about this was that lower prices drove people back into the market," says Pam Liebman, CEO of Corcoran.

Bill Staniford, CEO of PropertyShark.com, says, "There's still plenty of money sitting on the sidelines … The biggest problem is obtaining financing."

Jonathan Miller of Miller Samuel echoes that. "Underwriting requirements are the most stringent I've ever seen," he says.

Source: CNNMoney.com, Les Christie (10/02/2009)

Which Cities Will See Biggest Rebound?

Which cities are likely to be the hottest post-economic downturn destinations for young, brilliant, and highly mobile workers?
The Wall Street Journal surveyed six trend-spotting experts and they chose cities based on economic diversity, lifestyle and their own personal prejudices.
Here’s the top-10 list:
1. Washington, D.C. (tie)
1. Seattle
2. New York
3. Portland, Ore.
4. Austin, Texas
5. San Jose, Calif.
6. Denver
7. Durham, N.C.
8. Dallas
9. Chicago
10. Boston
Source: The Wall Street Journal, Sue Shellenbarger (09/30/2009)

Buying a Foreclosure Is No Picnic

Buyers seeking a foreclosed property should realize that not every foreclosure is a good deal.

Urge would-be buyers of foreclosures to have the property thoroughly inspected, says Dan Steward, president of the Tampa-based inspection firm, Pillar to Post. Lenders are not held to the same disclosure requirements as sellers.

Steward says damage isn’t always obvious. While it doesn’t take an expert to see that a toilet has been ripped out, it does require someone with knowledge to know that ripping it out damaged a pipe 20 feet down the line.

The best way for the buyer to get the property is to follow the bank’s instructions closely, says Ryan Melvin, co-owner of More Realty Group in Las Vegas, which specializes in foreclosures.

Another quirk that sometimes surprises buyers of real-estate-owned properties, or REOs, is the scrutiny that banks place on the buyers' credit, even though they are using a different lender.

Source: The Wall Street Journal, Amy Hoak (09/27/2009)