Sam Zell: Recovery Is Underway

Sam Zell, the billionaire investor who made his fortune in real estate, told Bloomberg News yesterday that he expects the U.S. housing market to start recovering at the end of 2010 and strengthen in the middle of 2011.

Zell, who according to the Forbes’ tally is the 237^th richest person in the world, said, “Conditions are getting better, but there’s a lot of uncertainty. The real question is: Can confidence return enough so that what you call the green shoots can continue forward?”

Zell said he expects more turmoil in the commercial real estate business, pointing toward General Growth Properties Inc., the mall owner that is fighting a takeover, as an example.

Source: Bloomberg, Rita Nazareth (03/16/2010)

What Will the Market's New Normal Be?

In a new study, "Housing in America: The Next Decade," Urban Land Institute senior resident fellow John McIlwain says the housing market will not return to what it was prior to the downturn but rather that a "new normal" will take its place.

He expects another 10 percent decrease in residential prices this year, a jump in the number of borrowers abandoning "underwater" mortgages, and a change in consumer perceptions of homeownership.

"The emotional impact on the children and parents and disillusion about the 'joys' of homeownership will be intense; new attitudes to homeownership and the American dream will emerge," McIlwain writes.

He expects home price appreciation to hover around 1 percent or 2 percent per year after the market recovers and the national homeownership rate to drop from 67 percent currently to 62 percent by 2020.

In the coming decade, McIlwain expects the following:

• Older baby boomers to move to urban, mixed-use, mixed-age centers near family instead of retiring to Sun Belt communities;
• Immigrants to snub the suburbs in favor of more close-knit communities;
• Younger boomers to face the challenges of lost home equity and a smaller pool of move-up buyers;
• Generation Y to rent for long periods by choice or because they are paying off student loans or have stagnant incomes.

Source: Inman News (02/01/10)

6 Surprising Facts About the Buyer Tax Credit

The homebuyer tax credit is not as simple or straightforward as you might think. Here are some nuances that will affect homebuyers who plan to use it.

• To qualify for the move-up tax credit, a home owner must have occupied the same principal residence for five of the last eight years consecutively.
• Buyers can elect to claim the credit on either their 2009 or their 2010 tax return, whichever is best for them.
• Buyers who claim the credit in 2009 can’t file electronically because the Internal Revenue Service hasn’t put the required forms on line. The wait for a refund is three or four months.
• The home can be a mobile home or travel trailer that is fixed to land owned or leased by the home owner. A mobile home or travel trailer that is actually mobile doesn’t qualify.
• The home can’t be purchased from a close relative, including a parent, spouse, child, grandparent or grandchild.
• A buyer who earns no taxable income or doesn’t owe any federal income tax can qualify for the tax credit and file a tax return just to claim it.

Source: Bankrate.com, Marcie Geffner (01/21/2010)

Are Fixed-Rate Mortgages the Best Loan?

The think-tank Center for American Progress is questioning the premise that a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage is the best option for homebuyers.

The reason mortgage-backed securities looked so attractive to banks is that they solved the problem of a mismatch between low rates on mortgages and higher rates for deposits. Banks worried about getting stuck earning low rates on a mortgage for 30 years while having to pay higher rates on bank accounts to attract depositors. Their answer: unload their mortgages to investors and let them worry about the profitability of the loans. Those investors hedged their bets by purchasing interest-rate swaps and other derivatives. Now, even Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are having a hard time getting a handle on what those hedges are worth.

In other parts of the world, variable rates are the norm. While borrowers face the risk of rates going up, lenders at least can ensure the rates they pay to depositors don't outstrip what they receive in mortgage products. Homeownership rates in Canada and the European Union, where variable rate mortgages are the norm, are about what they are in the U.S.

And in any case, there are ways for borrowers to mitigate their interest-rate risk. They can take out loans with fixed initial period, for example. For homeowners who typically hold their homes for seven years, a five-year fixed rate provides considerable security.

If the country persists in choosing fixed-rate mortgages, some observers say, lenders might consider the Danish model where mortgages are financed through the bond market rather than a separate securities market. That's a system that has worked well for two centuries.

Source: The Wall Street Journal, James R. Hagerty (12/14/2009)

HUD Considers Tightening FHA Requirements

U.S. Housing and Urban Development Secretary Shaun Donovan on Wednesday asked Congress for authority to raise borrower premiums and down payments in order to bring the Federal Housing Administration’s reserves above the mandated 2 percent minimum.

The agency plans to reduce the maximum permissible seller concessions from 6 percent to 3 percent. The minimum borrower FICO score will be raised above the current 500, although the final number has not yet been determined. It also will likely increase the down payment to 5 percent, but that number hasn’t been decided either.

Donovan also wants lenders to take responsibility for losses associated with loans not underwritten to FHA standards and to be accountable for origination quality and compliance.

Critics said tightening up FHA could slow the housing recovery.

"What would cripple the housing market is the FHA changes its down payment requirement," said Rodney Anderson, a broker with Supreme Lending in Plano, Texas, the top individual originator of FHA loans in the country.

Source: Reuters News, Lucia Mutikani (12/02/2009)

Government Announces Short Sales Guidelines

The U.S. Treasury Department announced new guidelines this week designed to make short sales go more smoothly.
To qualify under these new guidelines:

• The property must be the home owner’s principal residence.

• The home owner must be delinquent on the mortgage or close to defaulting.

• The loan must have been made before Jan. 1, 2009, and be for less than 729,750.

• The borrowers’ total monthly mortgage payment must exceed 31 percent of their before-tax income.

Under the plan, borrowers will receive $1,500 from the government for selling homes for less than the amount of their mortgages. Mortgage-servicing companies will get $1,000 for each completed short sale. Second-mortgage holders can receive up to $3,000 of the sales proceeds in exchange for releasing their liens. Investors who hold the first mortgage can collect up to $1,000 from the government for allowing the payments.

Borrowers who complete a short sale under the program must be "fully released" from future liability for the debt, according to the guidelines.

Source: Associated Press, J.W. Elphinstone (11/01/2009) and The Wall Street Journal, Ruth Simon (11/01/2009)

How to Get the Best REO Deal

REO and short-sale properties can be money pits when offers take forever to close and vacant properties are trashed.

Here are some suggestions for expediting the deals:

* The best short-sale deals are those where the bank has pre-approved the sale price. The property may still take a long time to close, but not as long as it would otherwise.
* Buyers of a short-sale should be prepared for multiple offers. If the short-sale property is an attractive one, the lender will continue to market the property even after signing a sales contract. And if it gets a better offer, it may sell the property without giving the original buyers a chance to negotiate.
* Seek out houses protected by the Cash for Keys program, which gives short-sale and foreclosed owners money to prevent them from trashing the place on the way out.
* Inspections are important. If a home has been vacant, get the property re-inspected prior to closing.
* Buyers shouldn't focus on price alone. Homes that are in poor neighborhoods, have serious maintenance issues, or have terrible floor plans aren’t bargains despite the price.


Source: Inman News, Bernice Ross (11/30/2009)